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暴涨时代远去？英伟达财报前夕 期权市场给出了“冷静”预判_我的网站

A |     ALLENDALE, Mich. -- Prosecutors are recommending a prison sentence for a former Republican candidate for Michigan governor who pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for his participation in the 2021 U.S. Capitol riot.Ryan Kelley's arrest in 2022 gave his campaign a burst of notoriety in a conservative multi-candidate field, but he ended up finishing far behind other supporters of former President Donald Trump in the GOP primary election. Conservative commentator Tudor Dixon won the Republican primary but ultimately lost to incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat.Prosecutors, citing Kelley's lack of remorse, are urging a judge to lock him up for three months when he returns to a Washington court Oct. 17, The Detroit News reported.“For two years, Kelley posted statements on Facebook and other social media, making light of the riot, falsely denying that any violence took place, and insisting that he engaged in no wrongdoing,” prosecutors said in a court filing.In July, Kelley, who lives in Ottawa County, pleaded guilty to a charge of illegally entering a restricted area.He climbed an “architectural feature” outside the Capitol and then gestured for other rioters behind him to move toward stairs leading up to the building, prosecutors said.Kelley has said he was “protesting the government” because he did not like the results of the 2020 election.Defense attorney Gary Springstead said probation, not prison, is an appropriate sentence.“Mr. Kelley has proven over the last 42 years that he is capable of being a law-abiding citizen and this is his first brush with the law,” Springstead said.。    　　作为AI交易的重要风向标，英伟达财报已成为全球投资者关注的关键事件。但随着市场预期不断升高，投资者对英伟达再次凭借超预期业绩推动股价大涨的期待似乎正在降温。　　美东时间周三（8月26日）美股盘后，AI芯片巨头英伟达将公布2027财年第二季度财报。　　媒体近日援引英伟达期权市场最新数据表示，财报公布后的次日（当地时间本周四），英伟达股价预计可能出现约5.4%的双向波动，即上涨或下跌幅度均可能达到5.4%左右。　　该波动预期源于期权价格所反映的隐含波动率，代表市场通过期权交易形成的财报后股价波动预期，但并不判断股价上涨或下跌方向。　　据期权数据分析机构Option Research&Technology Services（ORATS）数据，5.4%的预期波动幅度对应英伟达约2800亿美元的市值变化空间，这一规模超过标普500指数中约90%成分股的各自市值。

B | 　　值得注意的是，该波动幅度低于其5月财报公布前期权定价反映的6.5%波动预期，同时也显著低于英伟达过去12个季度7.4%的历史平均股价波动幅度。　　ORATS创始人Matt Amberson表示：“这表明市场对英伟达财报后股价大幅波动的担忧有所下降，也意味着该股走势正变得更可预测。”　　衍生品策略机构Susquehanna衍生品策略联合主管Chris Murphy指出，本次期权市场反映出的波动预期相对温和，印证了过去两年的一个常见现象——财报公布后，股价实际波动幅度往往低于期权市场此前定价所反映的预期水平。　　Murphy表示：　　“人工智能时代初期，英伟达财报大幅超出预期，股价动辄走出10%、15%、20%的行情，屡屡震惊市场，这个阶段基本已经过去。市场并不认为英伟达会再度爆出超大规模业绩利好，带动股价大幅拉升。

C | ”　　英伟达股价当地时间本周一收跌2.91%，报208.48美元，录得连续第七个交易日下跌。　　尽管近期遭遇回调，英伟达今年以来仍累计上涨11.7%，过去12个月累计涨幅达15.94%。

D | 对比同期大盘表现，年内标普500指数累计上涨11.8%，费城半导体指数累计上涨61%。注：图为英伟达过去一年股价走势　　大盘承压　　英伟达股价回调正值美股大盘承压。

E | 　　近日，美国政府债务规模攀升引发普遍担忧，美债收益率持续走高，30年期美债收益率上周创下19年新高。　　当地时间周一，有报道称美国财政部长贝森特或将动用规模近1万亿美元的财政部一般账户资金，为债券回购提供资金。

F | 受此消息影响，30年期美债收益率周一小幅回落，但仍维持在5%上方。　　业内指出，美债收益率飙升对美国成长股与科技股形成冲击，华尔街主要股指走低。　　上周，纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.05%，标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌1.43%、0.85%；科技板块表现更弱，标普500信息技术板块当周下跌3.51%，费城半导体指数当地时间8月18日单日下跌4.98%。　　在此背景下，投资者将重点关注英伟达的营收指引、芯片需求、利润率水平，以及各大云服务商是否会继续扩大AI相关资本开支。

G | （文章来源：财联社）。

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