木棉花的春天

一 |     India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。

二 |     杭州日报讯 “党媒连心·城市‘更’新”党建直通车活动近日在拱墅区大关街道德胜新村举行，来自党政机关、国有企业、专业机构和主流媒体等19家单位的70余名代表走进城市更新一线，围绕老旧小区改造中的实际需求开展协同破难攻坚。此次活动由杭州市委直属机关工委、杭州日报报业集团主办，杭州市城乡建设管理服务中心党委、大关街道党工委、杭报集团机关党委承办，旨在以党建为引领、以党媒为纽带，把资源、服务、力量精准投送到城市更新最前线，助力老旧小区“改”出幸福感、“造”出新品质。

三 | 专业力量齐聚社区 行动清单现场发布随着城市告别大拆大建，全面进入更新阶段，老旧小区聚焦微改造、精提升，从一揽子硬件改造向满足居民多元需求发力，从单一住建部门对接向多规合一、物业升级、文化需求等多个领域辐射。但仅靠街道、社区“单兵作战”，往往力不从心。如何把更多专业力量引入基层社区，让各种资源合力下沉？各方党组织代表首先走进德胜新村，实地探访德胜社区邻里中心、便民服务街区、红色三方邻里坊等点位的建设运行情况，在社区更新一线倾听居民需求。“直通车”活动现场，杭州城市更新大关项目临时党支部正式成立。“我们将依托‘党媒连心·城市“更”新’党建协同平台，进一步把参与城市更新的各方力量组织起来，把分散资源串联起来，把协同机制搭建起来，更好发挥党组织在项目推进、资源链接和服务群众中的核心作用。”项目临时党支部书记表示。据了解，去年7月，中央城市工作会议明确提出要“高质量开展城市更新”。在城市更新这道必答题上，杭州始终坚持先行先试，探索多方参与、协同推进的新路径。去年12月，“党媒连心·城市‘更’新”党建协同平台应运而生，首批集结30余家城市更新相关的机关部门、企事业单位、高校及社区力量，搭建起多方协同、资源共享的党建联合体。今年，平台再扩容，新增10家成员单位，协同合力进一步增强。此后，平台围绕大关片区老旧小区和城市更新实际，联动街道、社区及相关部门单位开展多轮需求对接。

四 | “直通车”活动现场，针对项目建设专业指导不足、物业服务水平有待提升、便民服务供给不够完善、文化资源下沉不足、基层宣传力量相对薄弱等问题，临时党支部发布了项目建设、物业服务、生活服务、文化服务、宣传服务“五大行动清单”；5家牵头单位还与大关街道签订了党建协同破难协议书，共谋服务事项，共商推进路径，推动合作从资源简单叠加走向问题协同解决、从“单位结对”走向“项目共建”。居民需求摆上桌 专业机构现场“解题”资源进了社区，具体难题怎么解？随后的分组对接环节中，五大行动小组分坐5大桌，社区居民当面提需求，专业机构现场出方案，一项项寻找解决办法。“更新资金有限，该优先改什么？”在项目建设行动小组的讨论桌前，这个问题很快成了大家聚焦的核心。眼下，大关街道正在旧改基础上推进东一未来社区建设。面对有限的建设资金，该如何紧扣“一统三化九场景”理念，把钱真正花在居民最迫切的需求上？“首先还是要把社区的问题摸准摸透。”市建管中心老旧小区改造处相关负责人建议，在推进更新前，先通过小区体检全面摸清底数，结合老中青各年龄段人群占比和实际需求优化场景建设，不“撒胡椒面”，比如老年居民集中的片区重点完善助餐、康复、适老化设施，有婴幼儿照护刚需的片区则优先配建托育驿站。

五 | 规划和技术力量也同步加入“会诊”。市规划和自然资源局相关负责人表示，可从规划引领、数据支撑等方面为东一社区更新提供支持。杭州市勘测设计研究院代表则关注到了居民普遍关注的安全问题，建议在更新中引入无人机等智能化检测手段，让安全排查从“人工目视”升级为“科技透视”，在场的社区工作人员听完都深表认同。针对大关街道提出的“文艺供给不足、文创转化不畅”两大痛点，杭州市城市规划展览馆、杭州工艺美术博物馆等单位主动递出“橄榄枝”：后续将通过策展、临展、巡展等方式，助力大关非遗精品走出社区、走进更广阔的公共文化空间，这一思路赢得现场社区居民的一致认可。围绕本土文创“市场孵化难”的现实困境，浙江省图书馆相关负责人提出，文创转化的第一步，是挖掘出真正具有辨识度的文化元素。把散落在街巷、社区里的历史记忆、民俗风情进行系统梳理、提炼包装，逐步打造具有大关特色的文化IP，为后续文创开发打下基础。社区运营企业代表补充道，街道非遗项目需进行生活化转化，把传统技艺融入日常消费场景，开发兼具文化内涵与实用价值的文化课程、文创产品，通过专业运营平台推广出去，实现社会效益与经济效益并重，最终形成自我造血的良性循环。这场现场讨论，不止于“出点子”。

六 | 接下来，临时党支部将梳理汇总五大行动小组讨论形成的需求和服务内容，进一步形成具体项目清单，实行“项目化运行、清单式管理”，逐项明确责任主体、时间节点和完成标准，推动现场交流成果真正落地见效。下一步，市委直属机关工委和杭报集团将加强部门协同和资源统筹，推动更多专业力量、优质资源向城市更新一线集聚，把机关党建优势更好转化为破解城市更新难题、提升基层治理效能、增进群众获得感的实际成效。