近期，外卖市场由高强度补贴竞争逐步回归常态。一些骑手没有等来预期中的持续“爆单”，围绕单量、收入以及专送、众包、全职、兼职等不同跑单模式的讨论随之增多，运力分层也被一些观点纳入骑手“内卷”的解释框架。
WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden is considering a trip to Israel in the coming days, but nothing has been finalized, a senior administration official said Sunday.A trip would send the strongest message yet that the U.S. is behind Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. The administration has already pledged military support, sending U.S. aircraft carriers to the region as well as aid. Officials have said they would ask Congress for upward of $2 billion in aid for both Israel and Ukraine.The official could not publicly discuss internal deliberations about the potential presidential travel and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.Egypt's president criticized Israel’s military operation in Gaza in a stern pushback Sunday to the United States as America's top diplomat extended his frenetic travels across the Mideast trying to prevent the war with Hamas from igniting a broader regional conflict.With an Israeli ground offensive looming, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed in some of his strongest language to date that Washington would stand with Israel “today, tomorrow and every day” in a partnership of shared democratic values, but that Israel must take “every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.” He leveled no direct public criticism of Israel or its bombing campaign that has killed civilians in Gaza.From Cairo, where President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi conveyed his criticism, Blinken went to Jordan and planned to return to Israel on Monday, carrying to Israeli leaders the feedback he received in a rush of meetings with leaders throughout the Arab world.His second visit to Israel in recent days will come amid heightening fears that a looming Israeli move into Gaza could spark a wider war with devastating humanitarian consequences, a growing concern for the Biden administration. And the death toll of U.S. citizens rose to 30, with 13 still missing.Egypt’s state-run media said el-Sissi told Blinken that Israel’s Gaza operation has exceeded “the right of self-defense” and turned into “a collective punishment."Blinken told reporters before leaving Egypt that “Israel has the right, indeed it has the obligation to defend itself against these attacks from Hamas and to try to do what it can to make sure that this never happens again." Mindful of the potential human cost in Gaza, Blinken said "the way that Israel does this matters. It needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity, taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.’’Earlier Sunday, the envoy met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, talks that built upon earlier sessions with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Blinken said that what he heard in every meeting with Arab leaders “was a determination of shared view that we have to do everything possible to make sure this doesn’t spread to other places, a shared view to safeguard innocent lives, a shared view to get assistance to Palestinians in Gaza who need it and we’re working very much on that.”The White House also appointed David Satterfield, a former ambassador to Lebanon and Turkey, to lead U.S. efforts to get humanitarian assistance to “vulnerable people through the Middle East.” Satterfield was expected to arrive in Israel on Monday.From Washington, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser said the U.S. was not “making requests or demands of Israel with respect to its military operations.” Jake Sullivan, making the rounds of the Sunday TV news shows, said the administration was “simply stating our basic principles — the principles upon which this country is based and all democracies, including Israel, are based. It’s what makes us different from the terrorists, that in fact we respect civilian life.”He said the U.S. was not “not interfering in their military planning or trying to give them instructions or requests specific.” Sullivan said the U.S. is conveying the message in public and in private that “all military operations should be conducted consistent with law of war, that civilians should be protected, that civilians should have a real opportunity to get to safety” and have access to food, water, medicine and shelter.Those remarks marked a shift in the U.S. administration's comments in recent days as officials have heard concerns from Arab leaders about the consequences of what a humanitarian catastrophe resulting from an Israeli ground offensive would do not only to Palestinians but also in inflaming public opinions in Arab nations and potentially destabilizing relatively friendly countries.Sullivan also said the U.S. has been unable so far to get American citizens out of Gaza through Egypt’s Rafah crossing with Gaza. “It has been difficult to execute that operation to facilitate their passage out. … It’s a high priority,” acknowledging that “I’m not aware of anyone else being able to get out at this time.” The crossing was closed because of airstrikes early in the war. There are an estimated 500 Americans living in Gaza, but that number is imprecise, officials have said.U.S. officials have said the Arab reaction to Blinken’s message has been generally positive — acknowledging Israel has a right to respond to the Hamas attacks but expressing deep concern about the humanitarian situation in Gaza and unable to stay silent about the Palestinian civilian casualties that result. The Arab leaders have also said the current situation cannot be resolved without an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that gives the Palestinians an independent state.Blinken made clear in Egypt that the U.S. will not waver in supporting Israel, saying, "We will stand with it today, tomorrow and every day and we’re doing that in word and also in deed.’’In his roughly hourlong meeting with Prince Mohammed at the de facto Saudi leader’s private farm outside Riyadh, Blinken “highlighted the United States’ unwavering focus on halting terrorist attacks by Hamas, securing the release of all hostages, and preventing the conflict from spreading,” the State Department said.“The two affirmed their shared commitment to protecting civilians and to advancing stability across the Middle East and beyond,” according to a department statement.The Saudi description of the meeting focused primarily on Palestinian civilians, echoing the sentiments that the other Arab leaders with whom Blinken has met. It said Saudi Arabia would object to the targeting of “civilians in any way or disrupt(ing) infrastructure and vital interests that affect their daily lives.”The prince “stressed the need to work to discuss ways to stop the military operations that claimed the lives of innocent people,“ the Saudi Press Agency said in a report about the meeting.___Associated Press writers Sam Magdy in Cairo, Colleen Long in Washington and Michelle L. Price in New York contributed to this report.。但将运力分层简单等同于“内卷”，可能忽略了即时配送的两个基本事实：订单需求有峰谷，配送难度有差异；骑手有全职、兼职和阶段性就业等不同选择，对稳定收入和时间自由的需求也各不相同。如果把所有订单和骑手都放进同一个完全开放的抢单池，容易配送的订单会被迅速拿走，远距离、出餐慢、需要爬楼的订单则可能滞留，长期稳定跑单者订单连续性和收入预期也更容易受到短时运力波动的影响。当订单差异和就业需求差异相遇，单一的劳动组织方式很难覆盖全部需求，多种履约模式由此形成。运力分层并不是给骑手划分身份等级，而是在灵活与稳定之间形成不同的工作组合。
B | 灵活就业已经成为我国劳动者就业增收的重要渠道。2025年12月，国务院向全国人大常委会所作的专项报告指出，据测算，我国灵活就业人员规模已超过2亿人。按照另一统计口径，2022年第九次全国职工队伍状况调查显示，全国新就业形态劳动者约8400万人，占全国职工总数的21%。
C | 两个数字的统计范围并不相同，但都说明，灵活就业、多渠道就业和平台就业已经成为劳动力市场的重要组成部分。20世纪70年代以来，全球生产组织逐步由大规模、标准化的福特制生产，转向更具灵活性的组织方式。社会学通常用“弹性积累”概括这一变化：企业不再只依靠固定规模、单一形式的劳动队伍，而是根据市场需求变化，采用分工协作、业务合作等多种劳动组织方式。数字平台提高了供需匹配的实时性，也使这种变化在即时配送等城市服务业中表现得更加明显。传统福特制依托集中厂房、固定全职工人和标准化批量生产，适合需求相对稳定、流程高度统一的生产场景。但即时配送具有明显的时空波动：午晚高峰需求集中，平峰时段订单回落，恶劣天气、节假日和突发事件，又会带来短时间内的需求增长。与此同时，不同区域的订单密度和履约难度也不相同。商圈订单可以顺路组合，偏远区域、封闭园区、医院以及需要爬楼的订单，则可能占用更多时间和体力。即时配送因此始终面对一组现实矛盾：既要有稳定力量承接日常需求，又要保留足够弹性应对高峰和特殊场景。如果完全依靠专送等稳定运力，平峰期可能出现供给闲置，并推高整个履约体系的配送成本；如果全部依靠上线时间高度自由的普通众包骑手，高峰时段以及偏远地区的难交付订单又可能缺少稳定承接力量。在这一现实约束下，即时配送逐步形成专送、稳定众包和普通众包等不同履约方式。专送通常具有相对固定的服务区域、排班和组织支持，主要承担持续存在的基础需求；普通众包具有更高的上线和接单自主性，适合短时参与或补充收入；稳定众包则处于两者之间，骑手通常在在线时段、接单和履约方面作出一定承诺，换取相对连续的订单机会。三种方式分别对应稳定性、时间自由和履约要求的不同组合，共同形成“稳定核心＋弹性补充”的劳动组织结构。这种安排将消费端的需求波动转化为供给端的弹性调整，是弹性积累体制在数字经济时代的具体实践，也拓展了单一用工模式的理论解释边界。从各平台的公开资料和行业研究看，这种分型并非某一家平台独有。
D | 美团在专送和普通众包之间，形成了乐跑、畅跑等相对稳定的众包方式；淘宝闪购所依托的蜂鸟配送同样设有专送和普通众包，在部分城市和业务场景中还有优选、蜂跑等更稳定的跑单方式；京东外卖则同时招募全职和兼职骑手，其达达秒送履约网络还采用“驻店＋众包”、区域驻店、商圈驻店等混合运力模式。
E | 各家的业务名称和具体规则并不完全相同，形成路径也有差异：美团和蜂鸟是在专送、众包基础上继续细分，京东则一方面建立全职外卖骑手队伍，另一方面接入达达原有的众包和驻店网络。但背后的组织逻辑相近，都是将相对稳定的日常运力与应对峰谷变化的弹性运力组合起来。这种分工不仅回应订单市场的波动，也与骑手群体内部的就业需求差异有关。以《美团骑手年度职业报告（2024~2025）》为例，骑手在就业目的、跑单频率和工作强度方面存在明显差异。
F | 有人将配送作为主要收入来源，更看重订单连续性和收入的可预期性；有人拥有其他职业或承担家庭照料责任，只在特定时段上线，更在意工作时间的自主安排；还有人将跑单作为就业转换期的阶段性选择。特别是对一些年轻人而言，骑手工作可能只是一个过渡性的就业选项，而非长期职业的选择，固定用工模式未必适合他们的实际就业诉求。这些就业诉求构成了不同履约方式长期并存的劳动供给基础。对于长期稳定跑单的骑手而言，如果所有人都进入同一个完全自由的抢单池，其订单连续性和收入预期可能受到短时、偶发运力的影响；对于只想利用闲暇时间增加收入的骑手而言，固定排班和较强的在线要求又未必适合。容易配送的订单如果被迅速承接，远距离、出餐慢、需要爬楼等困难订单却长期滞留，也会同时影响骑手之间的劳动公平和消费者的服务体验。单一模式看似形式公平，实际上可能忽略不同劳动者和不同订单之间客观存在的差异。
G | 运力分层本质是针对差异化劳动力供给形成的多组权责交换方案，而非人为设置高低不同的社会身份。不同模式没有高级、低级之分，区别在于骑手付出什么、相应获得什么。骑手选择相对稳定的模式，意味着让出一部分时间和接单自由，以换取更连续的订单机会和相对明确的工作安排；选择普通众包，则可以保留更高的上线自主性，同时也需要面对更明显的订单量和收入波动。这种选择会受到具体规则和报名条件影响，但总体上为劳动者在稳定与自由之间提供了更多可能。也是在单一固定就业之外，为不同劳动者提供差异化的就业选择。当然，任何分工要稳定运行，都需要做到权责基本对等。不同模式的进入、退出和转换条件，也需要明确且易于理解。从长期看，运力分层反映的并不只是即时配送行业的组织创新，也是劳动力市场从单一就业走向多元就业的缩影。它让长期跑单者获得相对稳定的工作安排，让兼职和阶段性参与者保留时间弹性，也让不同难度、不同时段的订单得到相应承接。随着灵活就业和新就业形态成为劳动力市场的重要组成部分，就业政策和公共服务也需要更加适应劳动者流动性强、工作周期多样、职业身份转换频繁等特点。同时，还应进一步完善普惠性的劳动保障和职业服务，改善进门、停车、等餐、充换电等城市配送环境，以降低不同类型骑手共同面对的劳动负担。
H | 在灵活与稳定之间形成更多可选择、可持续的就业方式，既有助于提高即时配送体系的运行韧性，也为理解和促进新就业形态健康发展提供了现实路径。（作者系中国社会科学院社会学研究所二级研究员）
